According to a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, a below-normal monsoon, which irrigates more than half of India’s farmlands, poses an additional risk to the economy, raising concerns about food production and the ability of the rural economy to thrive.
Skymet predicts that the upcoming monsoon will be 94% (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of the long-term average of 868.6 mm for the four-month period from June to September this year, despite the El Nino threat. According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services, an analysis of Skymet’s rainfall predictions for the month of April does not inspire confidence.
Actual rainfall over the last five years has been either much higher or much lower than Skymet’s initial predictions. The difference ranged from a 9.4 percent shortfall in 2018 to an 18.2 percent surplus in 2019. Thus, actual rainfall has been 4.6 percent higher than Skymet’s April projections on average.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has yet to issue its monsoon forecast, but it is expected to do so soon (it was announced on 14th April last year). Nonetheless, the IMD predicts above-average temperatures this summer.
The Centre predicts a normal monsoon this year: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday that the country will experience normal rainfall during the monsoon season, with a 67% chance of normal to above-normal rainfall this year. M. Ravichandran, Secretary in the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that the country will receive normal rainfall during the Southwest monsoon season.
He also stated that there is a 96% chance of a long-period average of around 87 cm. Farmers may be relieved by the government’s forecast, even though private weather forecaster Skymet predicted “below normal” rainfall during the monsoon season between June and September on Monday, attributing the shortfall to a strengthening El Nino phenomenon.
According to the report, the likelihood of El Nino is increasing, as is the likelihood of it becoming the dominant category during the 2023 monsoon. Rainfall is expected to be scarce in the country’s northern and central regions. Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra are expected to receive insufficient rain during July and August, while Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh are expected to receive less than normal rain during the season’s second half.