The Maharashtra assembly polls scheduled for November 20, all eyes will be on Nagpur’s Six urban constituencies. where a fierce contest between BJP and Congress is anticipated. The election is expected to be more competitive than the 2014 and 2019 polls.
Nagpur Southwest will once again be in the spotlight, with Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis seeking his fourth consecutive term. Congress is likely to field Praful Gudadhe against Fadnavis, in the Nagpur Southwest assembly constituency. This will be the second face-off between Gudadhe and Fadnavis, who has dominated the seat since its creation after 2009 delimitation.
The two political adversaries first clashed in 2014, when Fadnavis decisively defeated Gudadhe by 58,942 votes. In 2009, Fadnavis also defeated Congress city president Vikas Thakre by 27,775 votes, establishing his grip over the constituency.
Gudadhe was unprepared for the 2014 contest and was up against the formidable ‘Modi wave’, which significantly boosted BJP’s performance. In 2019, although the Modi factor persisted, Congress fielded Ashish Deshmukh, a former BJP member, and a new face in the southwest constituency, which allowed Fadnavis to win comfortably, although with a reduced margin of 49,345 votes.
Congress leaders believe the political landscape drastically changed ahead of 2024 assembly polls. The recent Lok Sabha elections saw the BJP-led Mahayuti coalition suffer significant losses while Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition, comprising Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), wresting 30 of 48 seats in Maharashtra. This unity among MVA constituents has led to a consolidated vote-bank — a dynamics missing in 2019 elections.
Caste equation
Nagpur South West Assembly Constituency is dominated by OBCs. The number of Kunbi voters is also high. It is followed by Scheduled Caste and Brahmin voters. It is also known as a constituency of educated voters.
In 2009, Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh and independent candidates together polled nearly 20,000 votes. In the 2014 elections too, the BSP candidate got 17,000 votes.
Devendra Fadnavis always got the support of Kunbi voters in this constituency. But, the picture has changed so much in the last 5 years that this Kunbi and OBC factor has become a big challenge.