On March 28, a powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar, killing over 2,700 people, with 17 more deaths in Thailand and more than 4,500 injured across the region. Experts say the quake released energy equal to 300 atomic bombs.
According to media report, triggered by a strike-slip fault along the Sagaing Line, the tremor brought down the Inwa Bridge, leveled buildings, and buried families—a brutal reminder of nature’s raw power.
The devastation has sent shockwaves into India, casting a looming shadow over the subcontinent. The unsettling question now isn’t if such a catastrophe will strike—but when.
For decades, scientists have been warning of the inevitable: a “Great Himalayan Earthquake” of magnitude 8 or more that could tear through northern India. And the signs are everywhere.
“India slides 2 metres beneath the southern edge of Tibet every century,” explained Roger Bilham, a prominent American geophysicist, in an interview with Times of India. “Unfortunately, its northern edge does not slide smoothly but is hung-up (by friction) for hundreds of years and catches up in minutes when this friction is overcome. The slip events, which we call earthquakes, are the inevitable and unavoidable consequence of this motion.”
A geological guillotine: The Great Himalayan earthquake
Bilham says that quakes exceeding magnitude 8 have struck the Himalayas every few hundred years. But for the last 70 years, there hasn’t been one large enough to release the pressure building up in the Himalayan arc. “They must occur. It is not a matter of ‘possibly’,” he said.
Danger Zones: Delhi, Guwahati, and the faults beneath our feet
More than half of India—roughly 59%—is vulnerable to earthquakes. States like Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, and the entire Northeast sit in high-risk zones. And it’s not just remote towns. Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata are all built on dangerous fault lines.
Delhi lies in Seismic Zone IV, thanks to the Delhi-Hardwar Ridge beneath it—an extension of the Aravalli mountains. A shallow 4.0 quake recently rattled the capital and nearby states, sparking a flurry of concern.
If a major quake were to strike during the day, when cities are teeming with activity, the human toll could be unspeakable.
Cracks in the concrete: Why buildings kill more than quakes
In India, buildings are often more lethal than the tremors themselves. Earthquake-resistant construction codes exist—but are routinely ignored. Builders cut corners, regulations aren’t enforced, and the result is a ticking urban bomb.
Hospitals, schools, power plants—many aren’t designed to survive a quake. When the earth shakes, they’ll be the first to fall.
The Bhuj earthquake in 2001 cost Gujarat nearly $10 billion. The 2015 Nepal quake, which also devastated parts of North India, caused $7 billion in damages. Yet lessons have not been learned.
Lessons from abroad: Why Japan and Chile are still standing
Unlike India, countries like Japan and Chile—who face similar seismic threats—have responded with resolve. They’ve enforced strict building codes, developed rapid-response systems, and invested in community preparedness. Their cities aren’t immune to earthquakes, but they survive them.
India, on the other hand, often slides back into complacency once the dust settles. “Initial shock, a burst of quick fixes, and then a slow slide into dangerous complacency,” is how one expert described it.
It doesn’t have to be this way.
Blueprint for survival: What needs to change
India doesn’t lack knowledge. It lacks action. The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has earthquake-resilient codes—but they’re often disregarded. Builders who violate these codes should face strict legal consequences.
Regular structural audits are essential. Some progress has been made: cities like NOIDA have tied up with top institutions—like IIT-Kanpur, BITS Pilani, and CBRI Roorkee—for professional audits. But there’s a glaring shortage of trained auditors.
This is where universities, technical institutes, and NGOs can step in. With certification programmes and mentorships, we can create a new generation of seismic safety professionals.
Fix what’s already broken
Many older buildings in India are outright dangerous. Retrofitting them is critical. But urban growth is outpacing safety. Corruption, lax zoning, and poor oversight have turned cities into death traps.
Infrastructure like bridges and public buildings must be reinforced now—not after a disaster. We also need designated open spaces in cities for people to evacuate safely.
Schools must teach earthquake safety. Offices and apartments should conduct regular drills. Every household should keep emergency supplies: torches, water purifiers, medicine, food, and batteries.
What makes the next one so dangerous?
The Himalayan earthquake, when it comes, will strike land—not ocean. That makes it especially deadly.
Bilham warned: “A future great Himalayan earthquake (with magnitude between 8.2 and 8.9) will, however, be unprecedented because the Himalayas are the only place in the world where such a large earthquake can occur on land, exposing about 300 million people to prolonged violent shaking.”
Unlike coastal tsunamis, a major inland earthquake would strike directly at India’s population hubs and economic centers—raising the risk of catastrophic damage and loss of life.
The disaster in Myanmar should serve as a critical warning. India possesses the scientific knowledge, technical expertise, and engineering capacity to mitigate such risks. What remains lacking is the urgency to act.
A major earthquake is not a matter of if, but when. With the right measures, large-scale casualties can be prevented. The window for preparedness is narrowing. The time to act is now.