The looming COVID-19 pandemic is showing a declining trend in India. However, the threat is not completely over now the new research conducted by Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT-K) researchers have predicted that the fourth COVID-19 wave may hit country in around June 22.
According to the research India is likely to witness the fourth covid-19 wave in mid to late June, and the surge is to continue for about 4 months. The research suggests that the severity of the wave will depend on the emergence of new variants, vaccination status, and administration of booster doses.
This IIT-K study has been published as a pre-print in MedRxiv and is yet to be peer-reviewed.
According to the researchers, the data indicates that the fourth wave of Covid-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020.
â€œTherefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ends on October 24, 2022,â€ they said.
â€œMoreover, the 99% confidence interval for the date, when the curve will reach the peak, is approximately from August 15, 2022 to August 31, 2022,â€ the researchers added.
The study said that there is a good chance that a new variant of coronavirus may emerge and can have an intense impact on the whole analysis.
â€œThe intensity of the impact will depend on various factors like infectibility, fatality etc,â€ the authors said.
This research was led by Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh of IIT Kanpur’s Mathametic department using a mixture of Gaussian distribution based on the data on Zimbabwe.