The chances of a strong El Niño developing this year have raised concerns among climate experts, with scientists warning that the phenomenon could significantly alter monsoon patterns and trigger extreme weather events across several parts of the world.
Experts said the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean may weaken seasonal rainfall in some countries while causing unusually intense rain and floods in others. The impact could particularly affect agriculture, food supply and water availability in monsoon-dependent regions.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that develops every few years when temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean rise above normal levels. This warming changes global wind and moisture circulation, directly influencing rainfall patterns across continents.
Scientists said El Niño events are commonly associated with weak monsoons, drought conditions, rising temperatures and crop damage. However, experts also noted that reduced seasonal rainfall does not rule out extreme downpours, as sudden heavy rain events often increase during such years.
Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational prediction branch at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center, said weather conditions before the monsoon season are equally important in determining rainfall behaviour.
India Among Regions Under Watch
Meteorologists said India usually records below-average rainfall during El Niño years, prompting the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to closely monitor sea surface temperatures in the Pacific.
Scientists explained that conditions before the arrival of the monsoon can influence its final impact. In some cases, dry winters and low snowfall help land areas heat up faster, strengthening monsoon circulation despite El Niño conditions.
Experts also pointed out that reduced snow cover in the Himalayan region can sometimes support stronger monsoon activity over India.
Pacific Warming Pattern Important
Researchers said the exact location of ocean warming in the Pacific remains a key factor. If the warming stays concentrated in the eastern Pacific, its impact on India’s monsoon may remain limited.
However, current observations suggest the warming is spreading across the Pacific basin, which could influence monsoon systems not only in India but also in Indonesia and parts of West Africa.
Scientists added that tropical regions generally experience El Niño impacts much earlier than countries located in higher latitudes.
Concerns Over Crops And Food Security
Experts cautioned that it is still too early to predict the full intensity of the developing El Niño event. However, they warned that rising temperatures, prolonged dry spells and sudden extreme rainfall episodes could severely impact farming, water resources and food security in many countries.
Researchers said millions of people dependent on seasonal rainfall for agriculture and livelihood could face major challenges if monsoon patterns become highly irregular this year.
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