The monsoon has arrived, but the relief may be short-lived. European weather forecasters are warning that El Niño conditions are developing rapidly, raising the prospect of significantly below-normal rainfall across Maharashtra and Vidarbha in the months ahead — a threat that strikes at the heart of the region’s farm-dependent economy.The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has flagged that El Niño is intensifying.
Rising sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific are suppressing warm moisture-laden winds that would otherwise fuel the Indian monsoon. Scientists warn that this “upwelling” effect weakens the Indian Ocean’s capacity to feed adequate rainfall into the subcontinent, with central India — which includes Vidarbha — among the most vulnerable zones.India’s monsoon arrived at Kerala on June 4, three days late.
The IMD has already forecast below-normal rainfall at 90 per cent of the long-period average, with a 60 per cent probability of a deficient season. El Niño’s worst effects typically intensify in August and September — the critical months before kharif harvest.For Vidarbha’s farmers, already battered by years of erratic rainfall and agrarian distress, a prolonged deficit monsoon could mean crop failure, depleted reservoirs, and acute drinking water shortages heading into winter.
Experts warn that three consecutive below-normal months could trigger drought conditions across large parts of Maharashtra before the year ends.
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