Barring a massive polling error or legal tangles that turn the election upside down it looks like Democratic challenger Joe Biden has a bit more flex in getting to the winning target of 270 electoral votes than incumbent Donald Trump who is banking on Florida and Pennsylvania to deliver four more years in power.
Bidenâ€™s best-case scenario is to win back three states where Trump staged an upset victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016 i.e. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If Biden gets all the three states then his electoral votes will stand at 232 electoral votes. If Biden wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in addition he sails comfortably past 270.
Trump must find a way to win Floridaâ€™s 29 electoral votes. If Trump takes Florida and Pennsylvania, he would still have to carry most of the states he won in 2016 to cross the 270 marks. Trump is trying to shore up a bunch of states he won in 2016 because of polls are running close. Trump has seized on Bidenâ€™s call to shift towards clean energy, framing it as grave risk for jobs in Pennsylvania.
The US is nine months into the coronavirus pandemic and has just set the worst kind of world record for COVID-19 cases-99,321 new COVID-19 cases the day before Halloween.
The latest poll average shows Biden ahead of Trump by a shade over 3 points in a total of six key battlegrounds: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and North Carolina.