India’s rainfall pattern between January and March is expected to remain uneven, with southern and central regions likely to receive good showers, while parts of northwest India may face below-normal rainfall, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday.
According to the weather office, regions such as Punjab and Haryana are likely to record deficient rainfall during the period. However, IMD officials clarified that the mixed rainfall outlook is unlikely to adversely affect rabi crops, as northwestern states are well irrigated and reservoirs are adequately filled following a healthy monsoon season.
Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the northeast, parts of Bihar and Vidarbha are expected to experience one to three additional cold days, while Rajasthan may witness fewer cold days during the season. He added that monthly minimum temperatures in January are likely to remain below normal across most parts of the country. At the same time, certain areas of northwest and northeast India, along with peninsular regions, may see above-normal temperatures.
Explaining the broader weather trends, Mohapatra attributed the largely dry conditions witnessed in December to the absence of western disturbances, which typically bring rain and thunderstorms to northwestern and central India. “The western disturbances are either moving northwards or passing too quickly,” he said, linking the altered pattern to climate change.
The IMD chief also pointed out that reduced snow cover between December and March is considered an indicator of favourable rainfall during the southwest monsoon. He noted that La Niña conditions characterised by cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are currently prevailing, with global forecasting models predicting a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by March.
“The ENSO-neutral phase is likely to dominate until June–July, which is a positive signal for good monsoon rainfall,” Mohapatra said.
Highlighting long-term climate trends, he added that 2025 was the eighth-warmest year since 1901, with the all-India annual mean land surface air temperature recorded at 0.28 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 long-term average.
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