India is likely to witness above-normal rainfall in May 2026, while temperature trends are expected to vary across different regions, according to the latest monthly outlook released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather agency also warned that some parts of the country may continue to experience above-normal heatwave conditions.
Temperature Expectations
“During May 2026, maximum temperatures are expected to be normal to below normal across many parts of the country,” the IMD said in a press release issued by the Ministry of Earth Sciences. However, it added that “above-normal temperatures are likely in many parts of southern peninsular India, some parts of the northeast, and northwest India.”
The IMD further stated that minimum temperatures are likely to remain above normal across large parts of the country. However, a few regions in northwest, central and adjoining peninsular India may record normal to below-normal night temperatures.
Heatwave Warning
Regarding heatwave conditions, the IMD warned that “above normal heatwave days are likely over some parts of the foothills of the Himalayas, east coast states, Gujarat and Maharashtra,” highlighting the possibility of intense heat in several regions.
Rainfall Outlook
The IMD has predicted higher-than-average rainfall across the country during May. “The rainfall during May 2026 averaged over the country as a whole is most likely to be above normal (>110% of LPA),” the weather department said while referring to the long-period average. However, it noted that some parts of east, northeast and east-central India may still receive below-normal rainfall.
Changing Climate Indicators
The weather agency also pointed to shifting global climate patterns. “ENSO-neutral conditions are evolving toward El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific,” the IMD said, adding that weather models indicate possible El Nino development during the upcoming southwest monsoon season.
The IMD further stated that neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail, but “positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon season.”
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