According to the study conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research in collaboration with Imperial College of London suggested that the third wave of the Covid-19 may not be as severe as the second wave, and scaling up the vaccination drive may help mitigate it.
The study, which is based on mathematical modelling analysis, shows that the new variant is unlikely to cause a new wave unless it leads to a complete loss of immune protection from a previous infection. A more transmissible variant would have to cross the reproduction number threshold of 4.5 to cause a third wave the study said.
“Rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease,” the study added.
“This study demonstrates plausible mechanisms by which a substantial third wave could occur, while also illustrating that it is unlikely for any such resurgence to be as large as the second wave. Model projections are, however, subject to several uncertainties, and it remains important to scale up vaccination coverage” it said.
The mechanism could also include imposing lockdowns that are highly effective in limiting transmission of the viral infection.
The study also stressed that a rapid scale-up of vaccination efforts could play an important role in mitigating these and future waves of the disease.