Even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for the country in July, Vidarbha is expected to defy the national trend with normal to above-normal rainfall during the peak monsoon month.
The region is among the few parts of the country where the IMD has predicted favourable southwest monsoon activity. Besides parts of Central India, areas of Jammu & Kashmir, the Northeast, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh are also likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
In its monthly outlook released on Tuesday, the IMD said July rainfall over India is likely to remain below normal, defined as less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA for July, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 280.4 mm.
However, the forecast indicates that Northwest India, Northeast India, East-Central India and parts of the East Peninsular region, including Vidarbha, are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, offering hope of further improvement after the delayed onset of the southwest monsoon.
The positive outlook follows a marked recovery in rainfall across Vidarbha during the second half of June. After recording a rainfall deficit of more than 70% in mid-June, the region’s cumulative deficit has narrowed to 39% as of June 30 following widespread showers across several districts.
Nagpur district has also seen a significant improvement, with its rainfall deficit reducing to 31% below normal, compared to over 70% earlier this month.
According to IMD data, Vidarbha received 107.6 mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 30, against the normal 175.4 mm, reflecting a 39% deficit. Among the districts, Amravati recorded the lowest deficit at 13%, followed by Buldhana (-17%), Wardha (-18%) and Akola (-19%). However, Gondia (-74%) and Gadchiroli (-71%) continue to face severe rainfall shortages despite recent improvement.
The IMD cautioned that below-normal rainfall across much of the country could adversely affect agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and drinking water availability, while also increasing the risk of drought-like conditions in some regions.
The weather agency has also forecast above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of India, including Vidarbha, while minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal in many regions.
On the global climate front, the IMD said weak El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to strengthen during the remainder of the southwest monsoon season. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to remain neutral through the monsoon, with both climate drivers expected to influence rainfall patterns during the season.
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